Is COVID going around in the United States?

The CDC tracks COVID-19 primarily through its COVID Data Tracker and the NHSN network of hospitals. Weekly hospital admission rates, emergency department visits, wastewater surveillance, and variant sampling combine to give a picture of current activity. Since population-wide testing has wound down, hospital and wastewater signals have become the most reliable indicators of transmission.

For most people, especially those who are vaccinated or have had prior infections, current COVID-19 variants tend to cause illness similar to a bad cold or moderate flu. However, the virus continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths, particularly among older adults, the immunocompromised, and those with underlying conditions. Long COVID remains a concern across age groups, though the risk appears lower with vaccination and in those with milder initial infections.

The CDC currently recommends that everyone 6 months and older stay up to date with the latest COVID-19 vaccine, with specific additional doses recommended for adults 65 and older and immunocompromised individuals. Boosters reduce the risk of severe illness, hospitalization, and long COVID. Timing matters: aim to get boosted before the winter respiratory season if possible.

Unlike influenza, COVID-19 has not settled into a clear single seasonal pattern. The US has consistently seen a winter wave (December–February), but summer waves have also occurred regularly, often driven by new variants that partially escape existing immunity. Activity can rise quickly once a new variant takes hold, so tracking wastewater and hospitalization trends remains useful year-round.

Wastewater surveillance measures how much SARS-CoV-2 genetic material is being shed in sewage. Because infected people shed virus before they get tested or seek care, the signal can indicate rising community transmission days to weeks ahead of clinical case counts. The CDC and state health departments publish wastewater dashboards that are particularly useful now that home testing makes case counts unreliable.